Katina Curtis: Rentseekers co-opt Iran war and fuel crisis to promote ideas for Budget as tough decisions loom

Deal, no deal, the strait is open, the strait is blockaded: the war in Iran continues, one contradictory assertion after another. And in the inboxes of politicians, policymakers and reporters another war is raging, one aimed at not letting a good crisis go to waste. The fuel shock from the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz, strangling the flow of some 20 per cent of the world’s oil supplies, is being co-opted by every rentseeker as the reason why their pet policy solution must be adopted immediately. Its timing, coming smack-bang in the middle of Canberra’s Budget season, has doubled the urgency. Those ministers spending hours locked in Cabinet’s expenditure review committee (AKA the razor gang) might be counting their blessings to escape the onslaught. If they’re lucky, a colleague might even have brought in tea cake or Tim Tams. There’s a Trumpesque avalanche of contradictory suggested solutions to help Australians struggling with sky-high fuel prices. Ramp up discounts for electric vehicles, take away tax breaks for EVs, start forcing their drivers to pay road user fees, definitely don’t implement road user fees, speed up the rollout of charging infrastructure. Infrastructure Minister Catherine King dropped a few breadcrumbs on these ideas over the weekend, indicating ending the tax breaks is on the table but road user fees — incidentally one of the few things to have wholehearted endorsement from last year’s economic reform roundtable — were off it for the time being. As for the broader issue of energy security, the suggestions range from banning fossil fuels completely or opening up more drilling for oil and gas. It’s hard to see how the “drill baby drill” approach would help people paying through the nose at the bowser right now. Andrew Forrest has seized the chance to re-up his perennial campaign to cap the off-road diesel tax rebates at $50 million a year, which he says would encourage mining companies to decarbonise faster and, in the current environment, bolster energy security. It would do him out of millions of dollars in tax breaks but hit his competitors lagging on the switch to electrification more. Few of the other miners back that one. Most of these helpful suggestions are just distractions. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Treasurer Jim Chalmers have bigger fish to fry with this promised “most ambitious” budget of their government. Listen carefully to ministers being interviewed at the moment and two things become clear: the budget is still in a state of flux because of the war, and it will be a tough one. Another suggestion whose proponents have seized on the war and fuel crisis to underscore their arguments is superprofits tax on gas. This one is diplomatically difficult as Albanese flies around the region waving Australia’s reputation as a reliable supplier of gas in front of the countries who sell us petrol, diesel and fertiliser. But notably, it isn’t being ruled out by those who’ve been involved in the budget discussions. Resources Minister Madeleine King sounded like she feared she might be on the losing end of this argument in a radio interview on Monday where she put her personal view: “For mine, I think it’s worth people remembering that to have created this gas industry, which provides most of the domestic gas in this country, those companies had to invest tens of billions of dollars.” She then had to concede that ultimately, “it’s a matter for the Treasurer and the whole cabinet to decide”. In other words: watch this space. Some of those suggestions flooding inboxes might find their opportunity in this crisis.