US Marine captain questions Australia’s capability to run nuclear submarine program under AUKUS

A research paper from a United States naval university has questioned Australia’s ability to operate nuclear-powered submarines, warning the country risks being left with “a potent but politically constrained” fleet under the $368 billion AUKUS program.

In a recently published thesis, US Marine Corps Captain Collin Rogers investigated whether Australia could develop, field, and operate a sovereign nuclear-powered submarine fleet in a “timely, sustainable, independent manner”.

Captain Rogers, an intelligence officer who previously served in the US embassy in Canberra, examined if the billions allocated for AUKUS could instead be redirected toward defence capabilities “that offer greater flexibility, agility, and scalability”.

“Investments in cyber defence, unmanned systems, intelligence capabilities, and regional partnerships could yield more tangible and immediate benefits for Australia’s defence posture and resilience against emerging threats in the Indo-Pacific.”

“Ultimately, the program reflects a strategic wager that deeper integration with the US and UK will yield long-term security dividends and enhance Australia’s ability to deter coercion,” the US Naval Postgraduate School research concludes.

“The risk is that Australia may bear high costs and constraints without full autonomy or strategic clarity, especially if the Indo-Pacific deteriorates faster than AUKUS timelines can accommodate.”

Under AUKUS, Australia is expected to acquire at least three Virginia-class boats from the United States in the 2030s which will operate from Perth’s HMAS Stirling, before the arrival of a new fleet built locally with the UK known as SSN-AUKUS in the 2040s.

In his masters thesis on nuclear operations, Captain Rogers argues that “sovereignty remains a central challenge in Australia’s acquisition of Virginia-class and future SSN-AUKUS-class submarines”.

“While these nuclear-powered submarines are intended to significantly enhance Australia’s naval capabilities, their procurement raises concerns about the degree of sovereign control Canberra can exercise over these assets.”

“This concern is rooted in Australia’s substantial dependence on U.S. and U.K. contributions, particularly in nuclear technology, maintenance infrastructure, operational doctrine, and personnel training.”

“The upcoming transfer of Virginia-class submarines will likely tilt the balance further toward interoperability and alliance-based operations, potentially at the expense of Australia’s independent decision-making authority in times of crisis,” Rogers writes.

Last year the Pentagon completed a review of AUKUS to ensure it aligned with the Trump administration’s “America First” agenda, with the document eventually affirming the timeline for the ambitious nuclear-submarine endeavour.

The report overseen by US Under Secretary of Defence Elbridge Colby, a vocal AUKUS critic, also stressed that the trilateral agreement required all three partner countries to meet certain milestones in preparatory work.

As the Albanese Government continues to pursue the massive AUKUS endeavour, the defence minister has dodged questions over how capable Australia’s ageing Collins Class fleet will be into the 2040s.

This week Richard Marles unveiled a dramatic de-scoping of planned upgrades to the submarines known as “life-of-type-extensions” which has prompted concerns over which missions the boats will be able to undertake in future.

Speaking in Darwin on Thursday, Minister Marles said Labor had increased funding for LOTE to $11b over the next decade, up from $6b which had been committed by the former Coalition government.

“The important point to make here is we are increasing our expenditure on the capability, and the focus is about ensuring that we get more sea days out of Collins, out of the whole Collins Class submarines,” he said.

“What we are doing is pivoting the way in which the full-cycle dockings, the life-of-type extensions are being undertaken—that is, to overhaul and keep systems which are there in place whilst, at the same time, replacing other critical military capabilities,” he said.

On Friday a new report from the Australian National Audit Office is expected to reveal that the LOTE program is already at significant risk, prompting critics to accuse the government of quickly rushing out its scaled-down version earlier this week.