‘Grim and introverted’: Inside Peter Dutton’s all-controlling Federal election campaign collapse

Three days before the 2025 election, Liberal candidate Gisele Kapterian was at a pub trivia competition when she got a text.

A supporter said her main opponent for the Sydney seat of Bradfield, independent Nicolette Boele, giving a long and mostly friendly interview to the ABC’s 7.30 program.

Host Sarah Ferguson told viewers Ms Kapterian had declined to a debate or separate appearance.

That wasn’t entirely true. The Liberal Party rejected the ABC’s offer without telling Ms Kapterian, who complained the next day to a senior party official that she wasn’t consulted and believed she could have beaten Ms Boele in a debate.

Ms Kapterian’s no-show on the program was seen by some voters as arrogant. Ms Boele won by 26 votes.

Who made the decision is unclear. Instead of the usual practice of interviews being approved by campaign headquarters, the veto appeared to come from Peter Dutton’s office, two party sources said. This was denied by a source close to Mr Dutton.

Two campaign directors

Either way, even though it was his first election as leader, Mr Dutton took on responsibilities in 2025 beyond the capabilities of even the most seasoned politicians.

After reaching the leadership despite years of media criticism, and frequent predictions he would lose his outer-Brisbane seat, Mr Dutton had developed a strong belief in his own political judgement, according to people who worked with him.

“Dutton liked his own radar,” said a former Liberal ministerial adviser.

As the campaign drew closer through 2024, he was frustrated at the party’s failure to do much damage to Anthony Albanese’s reputation, the source said.

Deciding to take control, Mr Dutton effectively appointed himself campaign director, a job officially held by the party’s federal director, according to a confidential internal review obtained by The Nightly.

Instead of seeking the removal of federal director Andrew Hirst, Mr Dutton went around him. His chief of staff, Alex Dalgleish, muscled Mr Hirst out of decisions, according to the review, leaving head office as little more than a logistics service for the leader’s office.

Daily phone calls involving the men and their staff — meant to determine crucial tactical decisions — were regarded by participants as a waste of time.

“The Federal Director observed that the Leader’s chief of staff would seek to direct campaign decision making for which he did not have responsibility,” the review says.

‘Tell us what to say’

Federal directors run campaigns for good reasons. They have spent years preparing, undertaking deep research to understand voters. Employed by the party rather than the leader, it was Mr Hirst’s job to tell Mr Dutton that he was losing, and help him turn around the campaign.

Mr Hirst knew what it was like to win, and lose. During the Coalition’s surprise 2019 election victory, leader Scott Morrison granted Mr Hirst, then new to the job, considerable authority to run the campaign, according to an adviser at the time.

“He gave Hirsty the keys,” the adviser said. “He said: ‘We’ll be guided by you. Tell us what to say.’”

A trained lawyer who now works for a public relations agency, Mr Dalgleish declined to comment. So did Mr Dutton, although he told The Age and Sydney Morning Herald on Monday the review was a “gratuitous and personal” hit job.

“The report makes numerous baseless claims and asserts a breakdown in relationships, which just wasn’t the case,” he said.

Over at the Labor Party, the campaign worked in precisely the other way. Anthony Albanese put complete trust in federal secretary Paul Erickson, giving him the confidence to raise difficult problems, according to a recent AFR Magazine profile based on interviews with Labor officials.

“I just tell it to him straight when there are things that we need to talk about,” Mr Erickson told the magazine.

The women problem

An ex-policeman from Queensland with a severe appearance, Mr Dutton was unpopular with women. In inner-city seats targeted by independents financed by climate activist Simon Holmes à Court, including Bradfield, his conservative image was particularly damaging.

Mr Dutton’s promise to create a department of government efficiency, inspired by Donald Trump, created an association with the American president that turned off many women, according to the review.

“I like you, but you can’t expect me to vote for Peter Dutton,” the party’s candidate for Wentworth, Roanne Knox, told the reviewers she was told.

The problem was exacerbated by an overwhelmingly negative advertising campaign.

Liberal ads on the internet were three-to-one negative, according to a consultant hired to advise the review, attacking the Greens, teal candidates and the Labor Party.

The attack ads backfired due to a paradox. Because the Coalition had positioned itself as the favourite, based on faulty polling, voters “looked for hope and more information about the Coalition’s plan for government”, the review said.

In reality, Mr Dutton was losing the election and did not realise it. Because few policies had been approved by his office, there weren’t enough ideas to turn into positive ads that could blunt the perception the Liberals were relentlessly critical.

Mr Dutton’s style did not help. Naturally wary of the media and lacking natural spontaneity, he didn’t seem to enjoy the campaign like his predecessor, Mr Morrison.

“The electorate expects to see and hear an upbeat and inspiring leader,” the review says.

“All of that was lacking and the Leader’s grim and introverted demeanour, clothed in the ubiquitous suit, whatever the occasion, did not change during the campaign and perhaps reflected the heavy and additional burden he imposed on himself.”

With normal decision-making processes abandoned, unpopular ideas slipped through. One of the most prominent, and damaging, was a decision to ban federal public servants from working at home.

Announced two months before the election, the policy was not given to Liberal and Nationals MPs for approval, or head office to be polled. “Memories vary on who approved it,” the review says.

The approach turned off many women, including those not employed in the public service, because it was seen as harming their ability to juggle jobs and families. It was reversed a month later.

The Coalition emerged from the election with 29 per cent of lower house seats, the lowest since the two-party system emerged 120 years ago. In a country where there are more female voters than male, women favoured Labor by 4.7 percentage points, a huge gap in a compulsory-voting system. Mr Dutton lost his seat.

Mr Hirst remains federal director. Whether he will keep the job will be largely depend on new leader Angus Taylor, who has asked head office to turn the review into a plan for turning around the party.