Pauline Hanson ‘amazed’ by polling numbers she’s chased her whole career

One Nation has overtaken both major parties to be Australia’s most popular political force in a fresh poll that leader Pauline Hanson says shows people want change.

The minor party lifted its primary vote to 31 per cent, above Labor on 28 per cent and the Coalition on 20 per cent in the Redbridge poll published in the Australian Financial Review on Monday.

Politicians on all sides were grappling with what the numbers mean for them as the Government continues to labour on with its budget sell that ministers are now openly admitting is a tough task.

Labor claimed to be unsurprised by the numbers while the Liberals are still looking for a way out of the political death valley.

Senator Hanson declared herself “a bit amazed, shocked” by the polls.

It continues a trend that started in the back half of last year and accelerated over summer.

“Look, I know this is what I’ve been working towards all my political career, but it’s not for me personally,” Senator Hanson said on Monday.

“I want to change for the country. I want people to feel that they’ve got some hope for the future.”

This year marks 30 years since Senator Hanson first entered federal parliament — originally pre-selected for the Liberals but dumped halfway through the campaign, after ballot papers had been printed — and 10 years since she joined the Senate.

She revealed on Sunday that she was now considering leaving the Senate to run again in a lower house seat at the next election, given her party’s soaring poll position.

Star recruit Barnaby Joyce has also said he might seek to stay in the Lower House rather than make a planned Senate tilt.

Mr Joyce said while the poll was an “indicator not a vote”, it was clear Australian politics had shifted.

“It’s not One Nation that’s changed, it’s the Australian public that’s changed, and they’ve changed in waves. Not an aberration. It’s real,” he said.

Newly installed Liberal Party president Tony Abbott said he was “not going to get too excited by a poll” but declined to attack One Nation directly, instead saying the “enemy” was Labor.

And shadow treasurer Tim Wilson’s explanation for why people abandoning Labor after the poorly received Budget weren’t turning to the Coalition was that “there’s a chunk of voters who just go into the orange paddock of despair because there’s a lot of noise and attention there”.

“I don’t think the voters aren’t listening, I just think the space is highly contested these days. You’ve got to build out the channels of how you want to communicate to people as much as the message,” he said.

Colleague Garth Hamilton called for Senator Hanson to “please come back and work with us” in fighting Labor’s Budget.

Labor figures believe the polls are likely to get worse for them before they get better — but they still believe they will get better.

The next election isn’t due until May 2028, although some in politics already believe Anthony Albanese could call it for late 2027.

Cabinet minister and Albanese confidant Mark Butler said he didn’t read much into numbers two years out.

“I can’t even imagine how many polls between now and the election day for people to pore over,” he said.

“I think what the polls show though — and private research that everyone does is showing — is that people are under real pressure right now.

“And people expect and demand government, and the Parliament more broadly, to do everything they can to relieve that pressure… We’re doing everything we can.”

Separate polling by research firm Agenda C on behalf of the Fair Go Australia campaign of start-ups and small business owners opposing the Budget’s capital gains tax discount changes put Labor on 29 per cent, One Nation on 24 per cent and the Coalition in 18 per cent.

It found that 39 per cent of people who voted for the Coalition last year, and 34 per cent of Labor voters, are now considering changing their vote, with One Nation the main destination.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers dismissed questions whether the tax plans in his Budget that have generated a backlash from start-ups and small business were behind the poll result, saying he was doing it “to boost first home ownership, not to boost our primary vote”.

But he too acknowledged that people were doing it tough and had legitimate anxieties about how they fit in a changing economy.

“The difference between us and the three-ring circus on the right of politics is that we are doing something about those legitimate concerns that people have… They want to benefit from people’s legitimate concerns without doing anything about them,” he said.

Labor believes its conversation is happening directly with the Australian people, not arguing with its political opponents.

Mr Albanese’s personal favourability plummeted after the Budget, dropping 10 points in the Redbridge poll, as did Dr Chalmers’ standing while Senator Hanson remained stable with as many people liking her as disliking her.

But the figures also showed Mr Albanese was beloved by Labor voters where Senator Hanson was reviled, and vice versa for One Nation supporters.

Redbridge director Kos Samaras said his research consistently showed the electorate was now split across three blocs: Labor and the Greens, One Nation, and the Coaltion.

That means there is a ceiling on how high One Nation’s support can rise.

“This is an electorate sorting itself into camps that barely speak to each other,” he said.

“Albanese is anchored in the Labor base and underwater almost everywhere else. Hanson is the mirror image, locked in with her own bloc and toxic with the other side.”

But just because Labor wasn’t bleeding heavily to One Nation didn’t mean it wasn’t vulnerable in some outer-suburban seats.

Labor frontbencher Julian Hill sought to speak with those voters as he pointed to Senator Hanson’s long track record of voting to oppose wage rises and penalty rates.

“I’d encourage Australians to focus on the substance, what she’s actually done, not the cute cartoons floating around on social media,” he said.

“This is an extremely chaotic conservative outfit with no solutions. And I’m confident, but you know, not complacent, that when you get to an election in two years (it’s) a very different thing, you’re making a choice, and I don’t think Australians want that kind of chaos in their politics.

WA Premier Roger Cook and Opposition Leader Basil Zempilas both professed to be unfussed by the polling, saying the environment was different in WA and emphasising their focus on the cost-of-living concerns within the State.