Australian Federal election: Anthony Albanese or Peter Dutton, who is going to win and by how much?

Need a bit of a refresh on how Federal election day works? Well, here is what you need to know.

How do you win?

• A political party needs 76 seats in the House of Representatives to form a majority government
• A net loss of just three seats will leave Labor needing to negotiate with the crossbench to form a minority government
• The coalition requires a net gain of 19 seats to govern in its own right, or a uniform swing of about 5.3 per cent
• If neither party makes it to the requisite 76 seats, whichever has the most would enter into negotiations with the crossbench first
• Published polls suggest Labor is most likely to win government but could fall short of a majority, while the coalition claims its internal data paints a vastly different picture
• A minority parliament would be the first since 2010 and only the third since 1943

Where do things stand?

• Labor - 78 seats (including seat redistributions)
• Coalition - 57 seats (including vacant seats after retirement, former MPs who defected to the crossbench and seat redistributions)
• Independents - nine seats
• Greens - four seats
• Katter’s Australian Party - one seat
• Centre Alliance - one seat

What’s changed since the last election?

• The Victorian seat of Higgins and the NSW seat of North Sydney have been abolished after a redistribution
• Western Australia has gained an electorate with the seat of Bullwinkel in Perth’s outskirts
• Nationals MP Andrew Gee left the party to become an independent, while coalition MPs Russell Broadbent and Ian Goodenough also defected to the crossbench
• The former Liberal safe seat of Aston fell to Labor at a 2023 by-election