Iron ore dividends, lithium revival, rare earths and gold, what we learnt from miners this results season

Another results season is done and dusted with some major themes emerging from WA’s biggest miners. Super dividends are no longer iron clad Millions and millions of Australians look forward to their bi-annual dividend cheques from BHP, Rio Tinto or Fortescue. The size of the dividends have been dwindling since the glory days of 2022 when the iron ore giants cashed in on the steelmaking commodity surpassing $US200 per tonne. Iron ore is still floating above $US100/t, but the mining giants are counting their pennies as they diversify beyond their Pilbara iron ore cash machines with China’s appetite for steel plateauing and subsequently putting pressure on prices. The shareholder payout for the 2025 financial year was BHP’s lowest in eight years, FMG’s lowest in seven years and Rio declared its lowest interim dividend in seven years. BHP is spending close to $20 billion building the Jansen potash mine in Canada, Rio has splashed out more than $20b on lithium purchases and developing its high margin Simandou iron ore mine in West Africa, while Fortescue has burnt through billions chasing its global green energy dreams. There’s still hope for Australia’s lithium dream The State’s entire lithium industry looked to be on the verge of implosion just a couple of months ago with the spodumene concentrate benchmark price around $US600/t — lows not experienced in four years. The price had been on a downward trend over the 2025 financial year and local miners suffered. IGO swung to a net loss for the year of $955m, PLS was $196m in the red — marking its first net loss in four years — and Mineral Resources’ lithium division drove a $896m net loss. But lithium mine closures in China over the past two months boosted prices to $US1000/t and reignited optimism. There was also good news on the downstream front. Tianqi has decided to persist with its problematic Kwinana lithium hydroxide processing plant, but more importantly, Wesfarmers and SQM’s own hydroxide plant in Kwinana appears to be ramping up well following first production last month. Rare earths is the new shiny toy The lithium industry may be showing signs of a revival but it has well and truly lost its place as the critical mineral of choice for the nation’s private and public money. The United States is spending big to curb its dependence on Chinese rare earth elements and the efforts to build a Western World supply chain are set to benefit Australian producers. Lynas Rare Earths took full advantage of the momentum to launch a $750 million capital raise to coincide with its full-year results on Thursday. Australia’s richest person Gina Rinehart, who is a major in shareholder in both Lynas and lithium producer Liontown Resources, participated in the Lynas capital raising but shunned the Liontown’s $316m tin rattling exercise earlier this month. Big sums of Federal Government money has also been flowing into rare earth aspirants like Iluka Resources and Arafura Rare Earths. Gold is good and west(ern Australia) is best The vast majority of WA’s gold miners shattered their profit records on the back of bullion’s record bull run. Among the record-breaking bottom line results was Northern Star Resources with $1.34b, Ramelius Resources’ $474m, Regis Resources’ $254m and Genesis Minerals’ $221m. But cost guidance for the current financial year among most gold miners was higher than what the market had anticipated with inflationary pressures in WA supposedly to blame. Meanwhile, Subiaco-based West African Resources shot the lights out at its Burkina Faso gold mine with a half-year profit of $216m and costs well below its peers operating mines in WA. But on Thursday, just two days after unveiling the record results and hitting a new all-time share price high, West African ducked into a trading halt with Burkina Faso’s military junta set to seize a majority stake in its prized gold mine for what is very likely to be a price below market value.