Interest rate cuts fuel prices but housing boom unlikely: AMP

Australia’s housing market is unlikely to experience another price boom in line with the Covid surge as affordability constraints outweigh interest rate cuts.

Almost all experts (88%, 30/34) from Finder’s RBA Cash Rate Survey believe the RBA will cut the cash rate, bringing it to 3.60 per cent in July.

Meanwhile, national house prices are on the rise, on the back of interest rate cuts which are spurring on borrowing capacity with PropTrack showing national home prices rose 0.4 per cent in June and are now up 4.6 per cent on this time last year.

But while monthly gains were recorded across almost all the capitals, it might not be quite as bad as the last time the RBA cut rates, when house prices soared nearly 25 per cent in 12 months until 2021.

That is the view of AMP chief economist Shane Oliver who told NewsWire “even worse affordability constraints” would not result in a repeat of the post-Covid price surge.

“It will be more constrained this time around. When we came out of Covid, interest rates went to zero and you could get fixed rates around two per cent and variable rates around three per cent,” he said.

“I don’t think we are going to see it this time around

“Affordability was arguably better in 2020 because house prices initially fell a bit.

“So there was super duper low interest rates and prices coming off a dip which is why there was a supercharged rebound in prices.

“This time around we are seeing the normal relationship outside of recessions with lower rates just meaning higher prices and unfortunately worsen the affordability problem.”

REA group senior economist Eleanor Creagh agreed, saying house prices won’t run as hard as previous cycles.

“Market momentum is building amid renewed buyer confidence and improved sentiment, buoyed by falling interest rates and expectations of another rate cut in July,” she said.

“However, the upturn remains measured as affordability constraints keep the pace of growth in check.”

The Reserve Bank of Australia has cut interest rates twice since inflation was contained – in February and May – and is widely forecast to slash the official cash rate on Tuesday following its July board meeting.

After a short-lived price reprieve in late 2024, home prices are at peak levels across the country, with Melbourne and Hobart being the exception.

Dr Oliver said every 0.25 per cent cut in rates by the central bank adds around $9000 that the average Aussie can borrow.

This would theoretically add $27,000 to first-home buyers’ borrowing capacity.

“It’s a rough guide but it depends on whether people borrow the full amount and how many buyers there are to sellers,” he said.

“But if every borrower has an extra nine grand following every rate cut then it could mean house prices go up by the same amount, it could mean house prices go up by the same amount and is why over time the benefit to home buyers of lower interest rates tends to be lost to higher house prices.”

Dr Oliver said rate cuts would likely make things worse for first home buyers if the RBA continues to cut interest rates.

“If we had a more normal property market and the supply of new homes was in line with the growth of the population then lower interest rates at times could help first home time buyers,” he said.

“But in the current environment, when there is an imbalance between demand and supply, it just makes the situation worse.”